This is a preview. Log in through your library . Bernoulli is published jointly by the Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability and the International Statistical Institute (ISI).

WHEN a series of numbers can legitimately be regarded as random samples from a normal distribution, the mean range within small sub-groups, multiplied by a factor depending only on group-size, gives a ...

you want that, read up on BP’s own PECOTA projection system. Instead, the aim will be to lay a basic groundwork for your expectations of the consistency of basic statistics from season to season.