This really tells the whole story, doesn’t it? Depending on which sources you went with, the New Orleans Saints had a win probability of something between 97% and 98% late in Monday night’s game with ...

Whew. Let’s all take a deep breath. Sunday’s season opener between the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons was a roller coaster ride from start to finish, peaking in the fourth quarter with a ...

For any event that has multiple outcomes with different probabilities, it can be helpful and illustrative to construct a chart or diagram of the possible outcomes. Tree diagrams are a useful example ...

The Titans' chances of pulling off a stunning upset against the Dolphins seemed dead in the water after a couple of key fourth-quarter turnovers. The first came when Eric Garror inexplicably muffed a ...

If we convert this spread into a probability of recession twelve months ahead using the probit model described earlier (estimated with Treasury data from January 1959 to December 2005), we can match ...