According to an argument by Colin Howson, the no-miracles argument (NMA) is contingent on committing the base-rate fallacy and is therefore bound to fail. We demonstrate that Howson’s argument only ...
When we try to follow the shifting path of the pandemic, it's easy to get lost in the numbers. Not all of us are statisticians. Amanda Aronczyk of NPR's Planet Money podcast brings us a fallacy to ...
Israel’s data shows that the COVID-19 vaccine works, but only if it’s analyzed correctly: the unfortunate story of the base rate fallacy. The vaccines are working, but only looking at the number of ...
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