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Michael Monticino, How to Construct a Random Probability Measure, International Statistical Review / Revue Internationale de Statistique, Vol. 69, No. 1 (Apr., 2001), pp. 153-167 ...
Like most educated guesses, the probability of success metric is useful but not without its flaws, says WSJ Wealth and Retirement Expert David Blanchett of Morningstar.
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