Understanding probability is essential in all kinds of ways, from making sense of weather forecasts to evaluating COVID-19 risk. But knowing that our common mistakes are a result of how we ...

Probability is one of those things we all get wrong… deeply wrong. The good news is we’re not the only ones, says John Haigh, a mathematician at the University of Sussex in Brighton, UK, and ...

A trade with a high probability of success is a very different animal than a low probability long shot.

What are the odds of that? Applying probability analysis to a thesis. How to assign a probability to range of scenarios or a specific catalyst.

Like most educated guesses, the probability of success metric is useful but not without its flaws, says WSJ Wealth and Retirement Expert David Blanchett of Morningstar.

Risk, probability, and how our brains are easily misled The human brain is pretty good at detecting patterns and randomness. Why, … ...

But even adult humans don’t have a perfect understanding of probability —just look at how many people dig out their umbrellas around when it goes from a 20 percent chance of rain to 30.